... disrupt the status quo, alter the way people live and work, and rearrange value pools.

It is therefore critical that business and policy leaders understand which technologies will matter to them and prepare accordingly.

McKinsey Global Institute's Michael Chui defines disruptive technologies thus: "Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy".

The report cuts through the noise and identifies twelve technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. The report also looks at exactly how these technologies could change our world; also their benefits and challenges, plus guidelines to help leaders from businesses and other institutions respond.

MGI estimates that in toto applications of the report's twelve technologies could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year come 2025.

This estimate is neither predictive nor comprehensive. It is based on an in-depth analysis of key potential applications and the value they could create in a number of ways, including the consumer surplus that arises from better products, lower prices, a cleaner environment, and better health.

Some technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and thus will be familiar. Others are more surprising.

Examples of the twelve disruptive technologies include:

• Advanced robotics — ie increasingly capable robots or robotic tools, with enhanced “senses,” dexterity, and intelligence — can take on tasks once thought too delicate or uneconomical to automate. These technologies can also generate significant societal benefits, including robotic surgical systems that make procedures less invasive, as well as robotic prosthetics and “exoskeletons” that restore functions of amputees and the elderly.
   
• Next-generation genomics marries the science used for imaging nucleotide base pairs (the units that make up DNA) with rapidly advancing computational and analytic capabilities. As our understanding of the genomic makeup of humans increases, so does the ability to manipulate genes and improve health diagnostics and treatments. Next-generation genomics will offer similar advances in our understanding of plants and animals, potentially creating opportunities to improve the performance of agriculture and to create high-value substances—for instance, ethanol and biodiesel—from ordinary organisms, such as E. coli bacteria.
   
• Energy-storage devices or physical systems store energy for later use. These technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells, already power electric and hybrid vehicles, along with billions of portable consumer electronics. Over the coming decade, advancing energy-storage technology could make electric vehicles cost competitive, bring electricity to remote areas of developing countries, and improve the efficiency of the utility grid.

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... need to know? 

Bob Goodman, senior vice president and director of user experience at Arnold Worldwide, told delegates that executives at traditional brands are aware of the shifts in advertising.

"They can't afford to ignore it," he said. "They're all looking for help in understanding what it means for them and how to improve on connecting with consumers."

In Google's world, search and paid search continue to support apps and utilities as the underlying technology, the reference design. Consumers won't type a query, but rather indicate or imply the need for information through clicks on photos or interactions with contextual content.

According to Goodman a click turns into a conversation and every page becomes a form of search.

"You may not perceive yourself as performing a search, but rather navigating through content during your everyday life," he said. "Marketers need to think more about the assets they can leverage to make use of content."

Brands need to broaden their notion of the meanings of "advertising" and "media."

Technologies like Google Glass and Google Now, as well as apps like Google Maps, transition the ad industry into the era of content-driven advertising.

Content in multiple forms that can move across screens with contextual relevance will become crucial to the way brands reach consumers. Google isn't the only engine moving in this direction. Bing and Yahoo have begun to make changes too, but have yet to become as vocal.

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... arrived and is here to stay.

Noel Ackerson, a 33-year-old software developer in Washington DC, who has been trialling Google Glass over the past several weeks, claims to have developed his own "common sense" etiquette for Google's new digital headset. 

Glass, which sites a small computer screen above one eye, also features a built-in motion sensor, camera and microphones, acting as an extension of a person's smartphone.

It enables the user to take photos and record videos by touching the side of the device or speaking commands aloud, as well as allowing him/her to give other web users access to the device's camera so they can "see" what the wearer sees. 

Developer Ackerson's self-imposed niceties require him to take Glass off in a public restroom, in a movie theater and in casinos, where having such a device could give him an unfair advantage.

Says Mr Ackerson: "Google Glass has technology that isn't new, and the etiquette we've applied to existing technologies should roll into it." 

Glass-wearers also can use the device to make phone calls, access Google's web search, get turn-by-turn navigation information and receive text messages on the screen, as well as send texts using their voice.

Currently unavailable to the general public, Glass is scheduled to launch some time in 2014.

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... $50 billion over the next three to five years. 

The rise of sophisticated wearable technology, such as smart watches, Google Glasses and other accessories, looks to be irresistible.

The report's authors contend that while 'wearables' are “not new,” they are “at an inflection point in market adoption”. The rationale for their conclusion?

Posit the Swiss hi-rollers: "Because there is a growing installed base of smartphones, cost and performance improvements are coming in components. There is more mature software to run them, and there are new business models for them."

Moreover, the wearables market is a lot bigger than investors realise. The authors contend that as of now the 'wearables' market is worth $3bn to $5bn, rising to perhaps $30 billion to $50 billion over the next three to five years.

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... an important part of the media landscape, especially as mobile-friendly "native ad formats" fuel growth in the market.

Here's an overview of some major players in the mobile advertising ecosystem:

• The lure of social media advertising is massive: As brands look across a fractured media landscape, social networks offer them an interesting proposition. Social networks have scale - enormous user bases and deep databases. They have high engagement - Americans were spending an average of 12 hours per month on social networks as of July 2012, with 18-24 year olds averaging 20 hours. And potentially, social media offers brands a uniquely captive audience for their content.
   
• Guaranteed placement is getting advertisers to pay up: Brands are paying to get their content or copy in front of a quantifiable audience, an increasingly rare feat in an era of scattered consumer attention. This desire for guaranteed attention also helps to explain social media's move away from traditional display ads — like Facebook's right-rail ads — and toward so-called "native ads" that surface in a user's stream, either as a Tweet or a Facebook post. A consensus seems to be forming around in-stream advertising as the most promising social advertising format.
• Social media advertising is set to explode: it is a young market and, so far, it represents only 1% to 10% of ad budgets for a wide majority of advertisers. There's significant opportunity for that share to grow. BIA/Kelsey recently published a study that offers one view - forecasting $11 billion of social ad spend in 2017, up from $4.7 billion last year. That estimate is large - but still seems pessimistic, because ...
   
• Increased mobile usage will be a huge driver of advertising growth: The BIA/Kelsey prediction calls for mobile to account for only $2.2 billion of that in 2017 - a 20% market share. This could easily be surpassed. Both Twitter and Facebook have passed the 50% mobile usage mark and, given the continued growth of mobile devices, it will only rise. Mobile accounted for 11% of Facebook's ad revenue last year even though it didn't release mobile ads until the tail end of the second quarter. By the fourth quarter, it was up to 23%. And now, Twitter is reporting that its mobile ad revenue regularly outpaces its desktop ad revenue. Social media advertising is therefore uniquely positioned to grab an increasing share of the fast growing mobile advertising market. 

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... "Data will be a core resource in the future". 

“If the UK wants to make sure that in the next phase of the digital revolution Britain has the Googles, and the Amazons and the eBays … then the government needs to turn its current enthusiasm [for data] to a really solid, defined implementation for a national core data set,” evangelises Mr Shakespeare.

“This is a major new piece of infrastructure for all society. It will be a platform on which we live our lives.”

Gavin Starks, ceo of the Open Data Institute, a quasi-independent agency responsible for assessing the government's use of data, agrees that the opening up of public data would provide an opportunity for businesses across Britain.

“Health care, transportation, finance, insurance; it will affect many, many different sectors, the change will be as broad as the web itself. There’s a huge amount of value to be unlocked".

An analysis by Deloitte, launched in tandem with the Shakespeare Report, calculated that the use of public data in 2011-2012 had added up to £7.2 billion ($11 billion) to the UK economy.

In one case, opening up live transport information from Transport for London saved Londoners' working time valued at up £58 million in one year alone, Deloitte guesstimates. Opening up more public data would unlock more value, the accountants argue.

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... users to send massive data files at a much faster speeds via their mobile devices, “practically without limitation.”

Fifth generation mobile networks (or 5th generation wireless systems) is a term used to denote the next major phase of mobile telecommunications standards beyond the current 4G/IMT-Advanced standards. 

The new technology will primarily appeal to phone-users who routinely send and receiving large amounts of data. With 5G networks, for example, Samsung claims that users will be able to send super-high-definition movie files in a matter of seconds.

The fastest wireless technology currently available – 4G or long-term evolution – has yet to be widely adopted worldwide. According to industry analysts, the next phase for the standard is likely to be a shift to “4.5G” networks.

Meantime, however, many networks still employ 3G.

Aligning itself with a target recently set by the European Union, Samsung has eyes on commercialising 5G technology by 2020.

Earlier this year the EU aannounced a plan to invest €50 million in research to deliver 5G mobile technology by 2020.

According to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, Samsung has successfully tested its 5G network with 1Gbps speed (potentially up to 10Gbps), and aims to provide service by 2020. 

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... smartphone featuring a screen that enables three-dimensional images without glasses.

Using retina-tracking technology, images on the smartphone seem to float above the screen like a hologram and appear three-dimensional at all angles. Reporting from within the Amazon bunker, staffers claim that spectacle-wearers may be able to navigate through the phone's content by using just their eyes.

Reports the WSJ: "Some elements of Amazon's hardware push have previously become public. Last year, news surfaced about Amazon developing one smartphone. And last month, The Wall Street Journal and other media outlets reported that Amazon also was developing a set-top box for streaming movies and TV shows."

As ever with the canny Bezos behemoth, there's more to this than meets the eye.

With smartphones - 3D or otherwise - Amazon could collect new data on its users via maps, phone-call tracking and app downloads, then offer users shopping recommendations. There is also the potential for new services like mobile payments.

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... set of guidelines for using HTML5 to create and run digital advertising. 

Released earlier this week for public comment, HTML5 for DigitalAdvertising 1.0: Guidance for Ad Designers & Creative Technologists aims to provide best practices and formal ad formats for HTML5 technology.

It addresses areas such as HTML5 display ads, file and ad unit size, code compressions, in-banner video advertising, efficient ad creative packaging, and ad server compatibility. The guidelines also include an HTML5 Wiki.

Avers John Percival, senior creative technologist at PointRoll, and member of the IAB’s HTML5 Working Group: “With multiscreen advertising growing at such a continued rate and increasing in demand daily, it's mandatory that we (as an industry) demonstrate how marketers can strategically and effectively bring HTML5 ad development into the mainstream.”

The deadline for public comment on the HTML5 guidelines is June 10. Following that period, the IAB’s Ad Operations Council and Mobile Marketing Center of Excellence will evaluate comments, make any needed changes and issue a final version.

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... Condé Nast, The Wall Street Journal and Univision presented ambitious slates of original programming to advertisers for the first time. 

Additionally, companies like Yahoo and Hulu, that already produce web content, announced greatly expanded offerings.

As a result, US viewers are being bombarded with an array of new internet programs — eleven from Yahoo, fourteen from AOL and a whopping thirty from Condé Nast, including one that will let viewers watch a Vogue editor, Hamish Bowles, as he shops around the world.

Advertisers and agencies, however, are less than enthused at the trend - expressing concern that audiences for individual shows will become even more fragmented and microscopic than they already are.

Says Group M's chief investment officer Rino Scanzoni of the new video offerings: “I don’t care how good your attention span is, I think it becomes all a blur.”

Karen Cahn, general manager of AOL’s online video arm, says the company monitors viewers' comments closely to see if they are uncomfortable with the video brand placements. “So far, so good,” she claims.

Read the original unabridged NY Times article.

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